Oil remains volatile, gold eyes nonfarm payrolls

A wild week for oil as economic fears mount amid turbulence in US banks

It’s not just some regional US banks that have experienced a run recently oil traders have been at it too. The sell-off in March was triggered by the SVB collapse and everything that followed and it was only when OPEC+ stepped in that the price recovered. And now it seems that not only was the decision to cut output by one million barrels per day not the catalyst for $100 oil, but it also may not have actually been enough to rebalance market expectations.

Clearly, traders are concerned about the knock-on effects of banking turmoil on the broader economy and therefore demand and the oil cartel may be questioning whether further action is needed. The surprise cut hasn’t proven to be much of a deterrent for sellers, although it may have contributed to the price rebounding around the March lows. ​ It would appear volatility is here to stay and traders may be wary about another surprise intervention, although the next meeting is now a month away.

Could the US jobs report propel gold into uncharted territory?

Gold has been flirting with record highs again this week and a favourable jobs report could be the catalyst for a clear break today. A weak report could see yields slip on the expectation that rate cuts could come sooner, weighing on the dollar and propelling the yellow metal higher.

That said, a lot is now priced in and recent rallies have come on waning momentum which may suggest traders have adopted a profit-taking mentality, perhaps even leading to a corrective move. Of course, that momentum may move back in the bulls’ favour if the report is weak enough and new highs backed by that could be a very bullish signal.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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