Oil and gold prices head lower

Oil remains in lower range as traders eye June OPEC+ meeting

Oil prices are slipping on Thursday after surging the day before amid optimism around debt ceiling talks. I’m still far from convinced that traders are taking the threat of default seriously but the closer we get to the deadline, the more we could see it influence markets simply as a result of more risk being priced in.

Broadly speaking the picture is unchanged. The market is trending in a lower range below where it stood prior to the SVB collapse and then the loss of First Republic. Better economic expectations or another OPEC+ intervention will likely be needed in order to lift oil prices back into that December to March range and neither looks likely over the next couple of weeks.

Gold correction continues but outlook still looks bright

Gold is off more than 1% and now comfortably below $2,000 as traders accept a run at record highs has been postponed. I still believe there’s a good chance that we see the yellow metal in record territory, perhaps this year, but traders may now await a more significant Fed pivot than simply hinting it may pause.

Once more, it all hangs on the data over the next couple of months as we see just how stubborn inflation is and what impact favourable base effects have on it. Not to mention how impactful past hikes will prove to be, alongside credit tightening on the back of those bank issues in the US. If that proves to be as significant as some expect, the Fed pivot could come sooner than anticipated.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

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