Macro Briefing: 14 December 2022

* Fed expected to slow rate hikes in today’s policy announcement
* Biden’s Africa summit begins with goal of resetting relations
* Will the $60 price cap on Russian oil disrupt Putin’s economic strategy?
* FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried charged with criminal fraud, conspiracy
* Quant strategies on track to post a strong run for 2022 results
* Eurozone industrial output falls more than expected in October
* UK inflation pulls back from 41-year high in November
* US consumer inflation eased again in November, rising less than forecast:

Economists are cautiously optimistic that inflation has peaked. After yesterday’s November report on consumer prices, which rose less than forecast, analysts found reasons to be hopeful. “The overall picture is definitely improving,” says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “It’s unambiguously good news, but it would not be fair to say that inflation is falling everywhere — there are still pockets of big increases.” “Economists note that the drop in consumer prices gives the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of rate hikes into 2023.” Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, also expects inflation to slow in the months ahead. “The Fed could dismiss the better-than-expected October as just one month’s data, but the further slowdown in November makes this new disinflationary trend harder to dismiss,” he writes in note to clients titled: “Stick a fork in it, inflation is done.”

Gold rises to 6-month high as US consumer inflation shows more signs of cooling. “Gold is benefiting as the U.S. dollar drops to its lowest point since the start of the year in reaction to the inflation data,” reports a writer at Kitco.

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