Benchmark Suggests Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3 May Underestimate Scale of Mining, Refining and Chemicals Investment

Tesla has published its Master Plan Part 3, an outline of a proposed path to reach a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage. (Earlier post.)

Tesla estimates the overall manufacturing cost to reach the sustainable global energy economy at $10.4 trillion, which will include the cost for the world to reach 240 TWh of total battery deployment. (This is compared to the $14 trillion projected 20-year spend on fossil fuels at the 2022 investment rate.) A quick analysis by Benchmark suggests that Tesla may be underestimating the cost of mining, refining and chemicals in that $10.4-trillion figure.

The total bill for mining, refining, chemicals, battery production and gigafactories comes to $3.4 trillion, according to Tesla’s modeling. The biggest mining and refining investments required by Tesla’s plan are needed for lithium ($374 billion) and graphite ($282 billion).

Major CAPEX requirements by mineral for mining and refining in Tesla’s Master Plan Part 3.

Tesla said a total of $2.082 trillion investment is needed for gigafactories for both electric vehicles and energy storage as well as recycling. This is in line with Benchmark’s estimate of $1.5 to $2 trillion.

However, Tesla’s estimate that investment in mining, refining and chemicals will be $1.4 trillion, is below Benchmark’s lower bound estimate of $2.5 trillion and under half of Benchmark’s upper bound estimate of $3 trillion.

Let’s not make the same error we made with gigafactories, with all the money for them and none for mining. The industry needs joined up thinking.

—Simon Moores, Benchmark’s chief executive