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High Voltage: China may dominate 90% of the world’s cathode production by 2030, but the devil’s in the detail

All the news driving ASX lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, manganese, magnesium, and vanadium stocks. … Read More
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This article was originally published by Stockhead
  • China will extend its dominance in cathode production, increasing market share from 78% in 2022 to 87% in 2030: Benchmark
  • And yet this will mostly be from Tier 3 producers, which currently do not supply EV market
  • Tier 1 production — those which can supply non-Chinese car makers — will actually shrink from 66% in 2022 to 43% in 2030
  • This week’s biggest movers: QXR Resources, Winsome Resources, Eastern Resources, Alchemy Resources and Prospect Resources

Our High Voltage column wraps all the news driving ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, manganese, magnesium, and vanadium.

Europe and the US appear determined to secure their own battery supply chains and drastically reduce their reliance on China.

While demand is ostensibly growing for battery material which bypasses China, data from Benchmark’s Cathode Forecast shows that China is set to extend its dominance, increasing its share of production from 78% in 2022 to 87% in 2030.

The cathode is a crucial part of the battery which contains high value metals like cobalt, nickel, manganese and lithium.

The data highlights how China’s total output is set to increase by a further 5.3 times from now until 2030, despite efforts to develop cathode capacity in the rest of the world which is only forecast to increase 2.8 times in the same period.

“China has a stronghold grip on the market,” Robert Burrell, an analyst at Benchmark, said.

“China will produce far more [cathode active material] than it needs domestically.”

Pic: Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

But maybe that 90% figure ain’t as dominant as it sounds

Firstly, many of the cathode facilities in planning or under construction are from Tier 3 producers, who currently do not supply the EV market.

“This tier currently makes up just under a quarter of China’s cathode production in 2022, but will grow to nearly half by 2030,” Benchmark says.

“Tier One producers, those which can supply ex-China automotive markets, will see the lowest growth in the country of all the tiers, and will shrink from 66% of production in 2022 to just 43% in 2030.”

Looks like the ex-China world may need more of its own cathode production after all.

 

In fact, China’s share of NCM cathode production will fall

There are different types of cathode chemistries.

Central to China’s growth is its LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode industry, which Benchmark forecasts will account for 69% of the country’s cathode output in 2030, up from 44% in 2022.

The popularity of LFPs has exploded over the past year or so.

They are ostensibly cheaper than the incumbent NCA or NCM (nickel manganese cobalt) cells mainly because they don’t require scarce and price-volatile metals such as nickel or cobalt.

This is offset by their lower energy densities, which makes them not-so-good for gruntier, long range vehicles.

Benchmark forecasts that in 2030 China will produce 98% of the world’s LFP.

However, between 2022 and 2030, China’s share of NCM production will drop from 39% to 22%.

“China’s EV demand is less driven by range anxiety as in North America and Europe, leading to a lower demand for high energy cathodes such as NCM,” Benchmark says.

 

Battery Metals Winners and Losers

Here’s how a basket of ASX stocks with exposure to lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, rare earths, magnesium, manganese, and vanadium is performing>>>

Battery metals stocks missing from our list? Shoot a mail to [email protected].

CODE COMPANY % WEEK % MONTH % 6 MONTH % YEAR PRICE MARKET CAP
QXR Qx Resources Limited 53% 79% -28% 206% 0.052 $42,108,754
EFE Eastern Resources 41% 37% -21% 17% 0.041 $30,274,901
ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 40% 33% 87% 104% 0.028 $27,639,203
WR1 Winsome Resources 37% 40% -24% 0% 0.37 $47,289,898
PSC Prospect Res Ltd 36% 11% 144% 411% 0.11 $46,225,946
GAL Galileo Mining Ltd 30% 39% 586% 492% 1.51 $278,345,647
RBX Resource B 26% -8% -44% -45% 0.11 $4,507,415
SRZ Stellar Resources 25% 0% -44% -52% 0.015 $15,069,464
AS2 Askarimetalslimited 24% 6% -40% 55% 0.34 $13,377,379
VR8 Vanadium Resources 21% 31% 0% 64% 0.105 $44,983,676
IMI Infinitymining 20% 20% 45% 0% 0.24 $13,512,500
VRC Volt Resources Ltd 18% 8% 37% -19% 0.026 $79,695,931
BEM Blackearth Minerals 18% 8% -22% -25% 0.098 $23,825,668
TMT Technology Metals 17% 14% -29% 6% 0.41 $87,077,191
CZN Corazon Ltd 17% -8% -49% -45% 0.0175 $10,070,454
AKN Auking Mining Ltd 16% 9% -50% -54% 0.095 $8,871,040
RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 15% -6% -57% -35% 0.015 $8,361,404
NKL Nickelxltd 15% 15% -9% -12% 0.15 $7,762,500
GRE Greentechmetals 15% -39% -31% 0% 0.155 $4,379,200
WC1 Westcobarmetals 15% 41% 96% 22% 0.275 $8,456,271
CNJ Conico Ltd 14% -9% 196% -17% 0.041 $55,288,788
SYA Sayona Mining Ltd 14% -2% 0% 43% 0.25 $1,869,559,978
LRV Larvottoresources 13% -4% -4% 0% 0.215 $7,060,525
TLG Talga Group Ltd 13% -1% -20% -7% 1.335 $390,367,384
PLS Pilbara Min Ltd 12% 40% 45% 156% 4.96 $13,580,544,828
HRE Heavy Rare Earths 12% -16% 0% 0% 0.185 $10,112,948
MLX Metals X Limited 12% 9% -57% -19% 0.29 $244,961,838
AQD Ausquest Limited 11% 18% -9% 18% 0.02 $15,677,835
THR Thor Mining PLC 11% 0% -41% -47% 0.01 $10,991,633
MIN Mineral Resources. 11% 18% 27% 66% 69.09 $12,540,578,548
ADD Adavale Resource Ltd 11% -11% -18% -51% 0.031 $14,396,445
ILU Iluka Resources 11% -1% -13% 14% 9.76 $3,960,367,647
BHP BHP Group Limited 10% 9% -15% 22% 39.87 $195,540,673,462
PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc 10% 5% -13% 21% 0.875 $435,245,910
GSR Greenstone Resources 10% -1% 74% 144% 0.066 $63,207,221
MRD Mount Ridley Mines 10% 10% -39% -21% 0.0055 $29,726,363
TON Triton Min Ltd 10% -21% -24% -37% 0.022 $30,421,252
MRD Mount Ridley Mines 10% 10% -39% -21% 0.0055 $29,726,363
GBR Greatbould Resources 10% 3% -23% -38% 0.1 $42,287,217
CHN Chalice Mining Ltd 10% -11% -45% -33% 3.91 $1,399,825,562
JRV Jervois Global Ltd 9% 9% -35% 8% 0.535 $767,474,235
OCN Oceanalithiumlimited 9% -10% 0% 0% 0.55 $17,433,000
INR Ioneer Ltd 9% -1% -15% -5% 0.615 $1,269,371,116
INF Infinity Lithium 9% 6% 6% 54% 0.185 $79,042,483
SUM Summitminerals 9% -5% 0% 0% 0.185 $4,203,684
DVP Develop Global Ltd 8% 16% -16% 1% 2.64 $400,275,648
NTU Northern Min Ltd 8% 0% -20% -2% 0.043 $204,140,635
GED Golden Deeps 7% -6% 15% 50% 0.015 $16,173,174
KOR Korab Resources 7% 7% -25% 43% 0.03 $11,378,550
CAI Calidus Resources 7% -3% -44% 0% 0.545 $223,268,670
IGO IGO Limited 7% 15% 1% 69% 14.5 $10,465,441,176
LRS Latin Resources Ltd 6% -9% -31% 127% 0.1 $181,010,776
HXG Hexagon Energy 6% 6% -62% -77% 0.017 $8,719,570
LKE Lake Resources 6% -9% -58% 63% 0.96 $1,244,026,470
GRL Godolphin Resources 6% -1% -41% -41% 0.088 $9,824,664
AZS Azure Minerals 6% -5% -49% -42% 0.18 $54,378,751
AVL Aust Vanadium Ltd 6% -18% -60% 64% 0.036 $135,262,871
WCN White Cliff Min Ltd 6% -10% -37% 46% 0.019 $15,699,671
EUR European Lithium Ltd 5% -8% -50% -26% 0.078 $109,218,656
LYC Lynas Rare Earths 5% -6% -30% 20% 7.785 $6,760,893,891
LPI Lithium Pwr Int Ltd 5% -6% -40% 70% 0.5425 $197,556,569
SYR Syrah Resources 5% 0% -5% 61% 1.6425 $1,059,501,722
MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 5% -17% -48% -13% 0.06 $18,937,055
SCN Scorpion Minerals 5% 1% 18% 45% 0.08 $26,214,664
CAE Cannindah Resources 5% -9% -39% 45% 0.21 $114,932,941
COB Cobalt Blue Ltd 5% -5% -23% 126% 0.735 $233,076,763
IXR Ionic Rare Earths 5% -4% -51% 23% 0.043 $158,776,802
MCR Mincor Resources NL 5% -12% -20% 46% 1.855 $893,420,724
MLS Metals Australia 5% -14% -69% 120% 0.044 $24,888,484
QEM QEM Limited 5% -4% -13% 50% 0.225 $28,146,055
NMT Neometals Ltd 4% -11% -40% 37% 1.175 $626,913,287
WMG Western Mines 4% -4% -47% -43% 0.13 $4,395,900
OZL OZ Minerals 4% 4% -2% 21% 26.42 $8,636,422,006
AZI Altamin Limited 4% -13% -10% 4% 0.083 $32,512,490
KGD Kula Gold Limited 4% 40% -39% -42% 0.028 $9,750,146
AAJ Aruma Resources Ltd 4% -17% -57% -35% 0.058 $8,475,921
AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd 4% 42% 4% 170% 0.5125 $664,081,094
ESS Essential Metals Ltd 3% 5% -23% 178% 0.445 $104,174,191
S32 South32 Limited 3% -7% -30% 6% 3.715 $16,477,216,439
PGD Peregrine Gold 3% -17% 21% 51% 0.605 $23,813,757
LOT Lotus Resources Ltd 3% -7% -39% -7% 0.2275 $285,089,849
LTR Liontown Resources 3% -5% -21% 14% 1.54 $3,195,813,434
TMB Tambourahmetals 3% 11% -40% -24% 0.155 $6,384,853
ABX ABX Group Limited 3% 24% -16% 48% 0.155 $35,774,530
PVW PVW Res Ltd 3% -35% -67% -20% 0.16 $14,418,391
KTA Krakatoa Resources 3% 3% 12% -9% 0.064 $21,372,015
PVW PVW Res Ltd 3% -35% -67% -20% 0.16 $14,418,391
KTA Krakatoa Resources 3% 3% 12% -9% 0.064 $21,372,015
M2R Miramar 3% -11% -47% -51% 0.098 $5,840,986
TEM Tempest Minerals 3% -15% -82% 50% 0.033 $16,404,901
VML Vital Metals Limited 3% -13% -42% -40% 0.035 $156,713,116
PAN Panoramic Resources 3% -14% -38% -10% 0.185 $379,419,091
RNU Renascor Res Ltd 3% 3% -40% 42% 0.185 $379,709,155
VUL Vulcan Energy 3% 1% -29% -41% 7.55 $1,013,380,578
ITM Itech Minerals Ltd 3% 27% -18% 0% 0.38 $30,883,334
PAM Pan Asia Metals 3% -9% -30% -13% 0.39 $26,980,888
AKE Allkem Limited 3% 8% 15% 70% 14.215 $8,404,333,573
BRB Breaker Res NL 2% -5% -16% -28% 0.21 $68,426,595
1MC Morella Corporation 2% -10% -36% -64% 0.0225 $116,031,116
GLN Galan Lithium Ltd 2% -1% -42% 24% 1.21 $338,072,568
ASN Anson Resources Ltd 2% -3% 82% 249% 0.3 $328,761,375
LIN Lindian Resources 2% 15% 824% 797% 0.305 $262,987,574
LPM Lithium Plus 2% 6% 0% 0% 0.615 $26,547,829
EGR Ecograf Limited 2% -13% -43% -52% 0.325 $139,603,372
AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd 1% -4% -56% 84% 0.079 $185,564,268
ASO Aston Minerals Ltd 1% -2% -50% -31% 0.083 $93,536,598
IPX Iperionx Limited 1% -6% -35% -22% 0.845 $150,721,938
CHR Charger Metals 1% 3% -42% -2% 0.485 $19,622,716
ARL Ardea Resources Ltd 1% 5% -47% 123% 0.9 $154,461,373
NVX Novonix Limited 0% -11% -71% -72% 1.83 $844,389,633
VIA Viagold Rare Earth 0% 0% 0% 317% 2 $166,624,808
NWC New World Resources 0% -6% -32% -47% 0.032 $59,100,890
HNR Hannans Ltd 0% 0% -45% -38% 0.021 $54,731,701
DEV Devex Resources Ltd 0% -19% -31% -2% 0.31 $113,258,759
AVZ AVZ Minerals Ltd 0% 0% -40% 129% 0.78 $2,752,409,203
MAN Mandrake Res Ltd 0% -18% -40% -37% 0.036 $18,707,497
FRS Forrestaniaresources 0% 20% -45% -42% 0.18 $7,063,865
CLA Celsius Resource Ltd 0% 15% -44% -38% 0.015 $21,039,607
FGR First Graphene Ltd 0% -12% -35% -39% 0.11 $60,481,409
SBR Sabre Resources 0% 0% 0% 20% 0.006 $16,739,136
ADV Ardiden Ltd 0% -13% -53% -42% 0.007 $18,678,347
PGM Platina Resources 0% -12% -60% -63% 0.023 $11,361,739
TKL Traka Resources 0% 0% -42% -46% 0.007 $4,821,422
IPT Impact Minerals 0% -13% -40% -52% 0.007 $17,369,594
LIT Lithium Australia 0% -27% -50% -52% 0.055 $67,080,377
ARN Aldoro Resources 0% -14% -30% -50% 0.215 $22,407,146
BSX Blackstone Ltd 0% -5% -55% -60% 0.18 $80,448,288
AUZ Australian Mines Ltd 0% -13% -69% -69% 0.07 $32,809,969
FFX Firefinch Ltd 0% 0% -51% -2% 0.2 $236,248,644
ATM Aneka Tambang 0% 0% 1% 15% 1.15 $1,499,196
RMX Red Mount Min Ltd 0% -14% -37%