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Eye on Lithium: ‘Downcycle largely played out’, says Morgans, eyeing PLS, MIN, LTR

  • ASX lithium stocks few and far between in green today
  • Cheer up, though, big Aussie stockbroking and wealth management firm Morgans spies a bottom… probably
  • Asra up 20% at least on strong quarterly reporting form. CTN and GSM also travelling well

Our lithium roundup for Thursday, February 1.

 

Fun times to be writing this column, eh?

You probs don’t need a reminder that lithium “spot” pricing has tanked more than 85% over the past 12 months after rivers of white gold, rainbows, unicorns and outsized gains in 2021 to late 2022.

Consequently, bottom searching has become a favourite pastime for lithium heads and other interested parties.

And here’s an interested party – “Australia’s largest national full-service retail stockbroking and wealth management firm”, Morgans.

Amid the lithium rout, the broker yesterday nominated two lithium stocks it rates a buy  right now: Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN).

And one, a cautious hold: Liontown Resources (ASX:LTR).

Okay, no shockers there, really.

Morgans notes that PLS “has the second best hard rock lithium mine in the world and a strong balance sheet” which positions it well to weather the current storm.

MinRes, meanwhile offers “attractive diversified lithium exposure”, says Morgans, with “strengthening contributions from iron ore and mining services” partly offsetting lower lithium earnings.

Liontown, Morgans says, “does hold attractive leverage in a lithium recovery scenario through Kathleen Valley”. But it remains cautious “given the funding hurdles the company is now working through”.

Overall, though – here’s the firm’s outlook we’ve jumped on for our bottoming-out headline.

While gloomy lithium forecasts have re-based near-term earnings expectations significantly lower, says Morgans, with further weakness a possibility, it views “the downcycle as largely played out, presenting some attractive opportunities”.

So you’re telling us there’s a chance… 

Well, further to this, Morgans added:

“Ultimately the lower spot prices push, the more severe the resulting supply response will become. And as a further consequence, the stronger the future recovery will have to be once demand conditions recover in order to induce new supply from a heavily damaged lithium industry.

“Our base case is nowhere near that severe, instead we expect lithium prices are nearing a floor, with the current rapid decline likely to moderate this half.”

 

Meanwhile, as Eddy “Market Highlights” Sunarto informed us early doors today:

“Lithium stocks on the ASX are on watch today after BofA analyst, Michael Widmer, slashed his forecast for spodumene prices – by -63% in 2024 and -34% in 2025 – citing waning demand for electric vehicles.

There’s that at play, plus some hawkish tone from Fed boss Jerome Powell overnight, too.

Powell said while the Fed’s interest rate target is “likely at its peak for this tightening cycle”, “we are not declaring victory, we think we still have a way to go.”

“I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting,” Powell added.

“If we get very strong inflation data, and it kicks back up then we’ll go slower or later.”

 

ASX lithium form guide:

Scroll or swipe to reveal table. Click headings to sort. Best viewed on a laptop. (Note: figures accurate per ASX at 3pm.) 

Stocks missing from this list? Email [email protected] and [email protected]

CODE COMPANY TODAY WEEK 1 MONTH % 12 MONTH % PRICE MARKET CAP
ADV Ardiden Ltd 0% 9% 0% -49% 0.175 $10,940,564
AGY Argosy Minerals Ltd -3% 7% -28% -85% 0.097 $140,440,750
1MC Morella Corporation -20% 0% -27% -71% 0.004 $30,893,997
AML Aeon Metals Ltd. 0% 0% -18% -70% 0.009 $9,867,606
ASN Anson Resources Ltd -2% -14% -41% -73% 0.082 $108,002,090
AVZ AVZ Minerals Ltd 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.78 $2,752,409,203
CXO Core Lithium 0% 0% -22% -83% 0.195 $416,702,431
EMH European Metals Hldg 0% 4% -32% -59% 0.29 $36,608,299
EUR European Lithium Ltd 0% -1% -19% 6% 0.085 $118,510,330
GLN Galan Lithium Ltd -3% -21% -39% -64% 0.42 $153,760,442
INF Infinity Lithium -10% -13% -23% -43% 0.077 $39,782,920
INR Ioneer Ltd 0% 9% -20% -72% 0.12 $253,369,458
JLL Jindalee Lithium Ltd -2% -2% -5% -53% 0.985 $60,490,117
LIT Lithium Australia 0% -7% -10% -44% 0.027 $32,999,175
LKE Lake Resources 1% -1% -28% -89% 0.093 $130,998,229
LPD Lepidico Ltd -8% -8% -31% -63% 0.0055 $45,829,848
LPI Lithium Pwr Int Ltd 0% 0% 1% 28% 0.5575 $358,696,328
LTR Liontown Resources -3% 6% -40% -37% 0.995 $2,494,644,298
MIN Mineral Resources. -2% 6% -16% -34% 58.87 $11,701,426,359
MLS Metals Australia 0% 0% -14% -37% 0.032 $19,969,158
AKE Allkem Limited 0% -100% -100% -100% 0 $6,304,350,967
PLL Piedmont Lithium Inc 0% -13% -44% -74% 0.24 $92,618,040
PLS Pilbara Min Ltd -2% 0% -12% -27% 3.465 $10,683,611,205
QPM Queensland Pacific 0% -3% -33% -66% 0.037 $74,463,992
PSC Prospect Res Ltd 1% 2% -6% -27% 0.084 $38,456,553
RLC Reedy Lagoon Corp. 0% 0% 0% -48% 0.005 $3,097,704
SYA Sayona Mining Ltd -4% -13% -46% -85% 0.0385 $411,731,841
TKL Traka Resources 0% 0% -33% -68% 0.002 $3,501,317
TON Triton Min Ltd 3% 0% -22% -53% 0.018 $27,324,372
VUL Vulcan Energy -3% -1% -27% -71% 2.08 $368,236,237
GL1 Globallith 2% -9% -57% -77% 0.515 $131,433,976
BMM Balkanminingandmin -8% -16% -31% -80% 0.076 $5,896,363
LEL Lithenergy -3% -21% -37% -57% 0.36 $38,113,700
ARN Aldoro Resources 0% 20% -12% -56% 0.11 $14,808,612
NMT Neometals Ltd -3% -10% -33% -83% 0.14 $90,290,096
IGO IGO Limited -4% -2% -19% -50% 7.295 $5,724,944,666
AAJ Aruma Resources Ltd 0% 5% -22% -74% 0.021 $4,134,722
PAM Pan Asia Metals 0% 0% 28% -58% 0.16 $26,850,684
AX8 Accelerate Resources -4% -4% -38% -7% 0.026 $15,500,747
AM7 Arcadia Minerals -2% -9% -12% -72% 0.064 $7,088,257
AS2 Askarimetalslimited -8% -19% -37% -82% 0.11 $9,354,026
BYH Bryah Resources Ltd 0% 0% -8% -49% 0.012 $5,203,287
EMS Eastern Metals 0% -8% -6% -61% 0.033 $2,720,066
FG1 Flynngold -5% -7% 10% -42% 0.057 $8,743,455
FRS Forrestaniaresources -4% -17% -11% -84% 0.025 $4,206,429
GSM Golden State Mining 18% 8% -13% -69% 0.013 $3,073,077
IMI Infinitymining -17% -5% -29% -61% 0.1 $14,250,407
LRV Larvottoresources 0% 9% 1% -57% 0.071 $15,876,427
MMC Mitremining 6% 16% -14% -17% 0.2325 $12,471,278
RAG Ragnar Metals Ltd 0% -4% -8% 65% 0.022 $10,427,581
CTN Catalina Resources 25% 67% 11% -50% 0.005 $4,953,948
TMB Tambourahmetals -6% -9% -30% -24% 0.08 $7,049,930
TEM Tempest Minerals 0% 0% -6% -71% 0.0075 $3,893,433
EMC Everest Metals Corp 0% -1% -5% -21% 0.076 $12,485,516
WCN White Cliff Min Ltd -6% 0% 67% 15% 0.015 $21,373,749
WML Woomera Mining Ltd 0% -17% -83% -71% 0.005 $6,090,695
AZL Arizona Lithium Ltd -2% -11% -34% -71% 0.0205 $78,894,288
CRR Critical Resources -7% -7% -38% -76% 0.013 $24,889,904
KGD Kula Gold Limited -33% -50% -60% -79% 0.006 $3,808,907
LRS Latin Resources Ltd -6% -9% -44% 45% 0.16 $475,363,554
PNN Power Minerals Ltd -3% -15% -31% -72% 0.145 $13,106,415
WR1 Winsome Resources 2% -5% -46% -76% 0.565 $105,885,703
KZR Kalamazoo Resources -1% -5% -23% -57% 0.093 $16,263,675
MTM MTM Critical Metals -4% -10% 6% -10% 0.072 $9,322,227
QXR Qx Resources Limited -6% -6% -30% -67% 0.016 $18,871,324
SCN Scorpion Minerals 0% -11% -24% -71% 0.025 $10,236,405
AZI Altamin Limited 0% -9% -9% -34% 0.05 $21,406,097
ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 0% 0% -60% 0.004 $3,207,884
KAI Kairos Minerals Ltd 12% 21% 4% -24% 0.0145 $34,071,858
STM Sunstone Metals Ltd 0% -17% -33% -74% 0.01 $34,877,349
PGD Peregrine Gold 5% -2% 31% -39% 0.315 $20,098,944
AVW Avira Resources Ltd 0% 0% 0% -20% 0.002 $4,267,580
NVA Nova Minerals Ltd 0% -3% -7% -51% 0.335 $70,648,137
GT1 Greentechnology -6% -9% -49% -84% 0.145 $49,174,075
BNR Bulletin Res Ltd -4% -10% -43% -20% 0.08 $24,369,906
CAI Calidus Resources -5% -5% -14% -33% 0.185 $119,438,030
MRR Minrex Resources Ltd 0% 0% -24% -65% 0.013 $14,103,278
A8G Australasian Metals 0% -20% -41% -47% 0.1 $5,212,049
EFE Eastern Resources -13% -13% -13% -59% 0.007 $9,935,572
MQR Marquee Resource Ltd 0% 10% -15% -37% 0.022 $9,094,456
SRZ Stellar Resources 0% 0% 0% -50% 0.007 $8,043,185
LSR Lodestar Minerals -20% -33% -50% -50% 0.002 $5,058,493
NWM Norwest Minerals 0% -4% -11% -62% 0.024 $6,901,668
AOA Ausmon Resorces 0% -17% -17% -64% 0.0025 $2,647,498
VKA Viking Mines Ltd -8% -15% -21% 0% 0.011 $12,303,101
IPT Impact Minerals 0% -8% 9% 20% 0.012 $34,376,447
SRI Sipa Resources Ltd 10% 0% -12% -31% 0.022 $4,563,163
VMC Venus Metals Cor Ltd 5% 7% 5% 17% 0.105 $18,972,868
RGL Riversgold 0% 0% -17% -68% 0.01 $9,676,615
ZNC Zenith Minerals Ltd 0% -18% -10% -45% 0.135 $47,571,419
RAS Ragusa Minerals Ltd 0% 3% -14% -70% 0.031 $4,420,562
G88 Golden Mile Res Ltd -7% -13% -26% -37% 0.014 $4,940,843
EPM Eclipse Metals 0% 7% 0% -64% 0.008 $16,500,434
EVR Ev Resources Ltd 11% 0% -9% -33% 0.01 $9,896,295
WC8 Wildcat Resources 5% 2% -40% 1300% 0.42 $478,335,249
MNS Magnis Energy Tech 0% 0% 0% -90% 0.042 $50,378,922
RIO Rio Tinto Limited -1% 2% -3% 4% 132.17 $49,342,059,165
THR Thor Energy PLC 3% 0% 13% -43% 0.034 $6,139,199
YAR Yari Minerals Ltd 0% 0% -13% -44% 0.01 $4,823,578
MXR Maximus Resources 0% 0% 0% -17% 0.035 $11,233,102
DRE Dreadnought Resources Ltd -2% -15% -32% -81% 0.0205 $73,060,532
MM1 Midasmineralsltd 0% -9% -29% -33% 0.1 $8,674,725
M2R Miramar -4% -4% 10% -71% 0.023 $3,572,869
LLI Loyal Lithium Ltd -6% -13% -27% -55% 0.225 $19,988,957
LRD Lordresourceslimited 0% 0% -6% -69% 0.059 $2,190,795
WMC Wiluna Mining Corp 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.205 $74,238,031
AUN Aurumin 0% 11% 15% -51% 0.03 $10,753,292
ZEO Zeotech Limited 3% -14% -6% -23% 0.03 $50,269,269
ALY Alchemy Resource Ltd 0% -11% -20% -53% 0.008 $9,424,610
LIS Lisenergylimited 0% -9% -17% -59% 0.15 $96,030,035
GW1 Greenwing Resources 6% -3% -30% -68% 0.095 $15,682,633
KTA Krakatoa Resources 0% 5% -44% -53% 0.02 $9,442,144
TYX Tyranna Res Ltd 7% 0% -12% -32% 0.015 $46,023,955
DAF Discovery Alaska Ltd 0% 0% 42% 0% 0.027 $6,324,337
FTL Firetail Resources 0% -2% -23% -59% 0.059 $8,785,428
IR1 Irismetals -11% 17% -33% -47% 0.62 $90,639,487
LNR Lanthanein Resources 8% -7% -43% -69% 0.0065 $7,738,871
DAL Dalaroometalsltd 11% -5% -5% -77% 0.021 $1,572,250
TKM Trek Metals Ltd 0% -8% -8% -53% 0.037 $18,983,844
CY5 Cygnus Metals Ltd 0% -12% -49% -86% 0.069 $20,117,581
TUL Tulla Resources 0% -100% -100% -100% 0 $118,262,971
WES Wesfarmers Limited 0% 1% 2% 17% 57.96 $65,975,092,145
LLL Leolithiumlimited 0% 0% 0% -17% 0.505 $498,553,663
OCN Oceanalithiumlimited -2% -19% -48% -83% 0.062 $3,406,820
A11 Atlantic Lithium 2% 0% -3% -44% 0.385 $245,250,068
CMD Cassius Mining Ltd 0% -6% -18% 32% 0.033 $16,586,148
VSR Voltaic Strategic 0% 0% -16% -33% 0.016 $7,729,662
SGQ St George Min Ltd 4% -14% -26% -67% 0.025 $23,724,970
LLO Lion One Metals Ltd 0% -1% -5% -11% 0.895 $13,716,520
PAT Patriot Lithium -16% -25% -42% -71% 0.105 $8,702,142
PL3 Patagonia Lithium 0% 9% -4% 0% 0.125 $6,141,063
BUR Burleyminerals -7% -27% -41% -64% 0.098 $10,846,159
CHR Charger Metals 0% -14% -27% -66% 0.12 $9,290,430
RMX Red Mount Min Ltd 0% 0% 0% -50% 0.003 $8,020,728
DLI Delta Lithium 5% 4% -38% -37% 0.29 $195,750,402
LM1 Leeuwin Metals Ltd 0% -20% -29% 0% 0.1 $4,685,167
ENT Enterprise Metals 0% 0% 0% -60% 0.004 $3,207,884
FIN FIN Resources Ltd -6% -6% -23% 6% 0.017 $11,686,837
DTM Dart Mining NL 0% 0% -18% -74% 0.014 $3,186,115
NIS Nickelsearch -2% 7% -37% -68% 0.046 $10,036,495
EG1 Evergreenlithium 0% 4% -37% 0% 0.12 $6,747,600
MAN Mandrake Res Ltd 0% 0% -7% -23% 0.04 $24,630,397
FBM Future Battery -2% -15% -30% -19% 0.051 $27,755,311
LPM Lithium Plus -10% -10% -39% -39% 0.215 $20,637,168
KOB Kobaresourceslimited 3% 14% 129% -6% 0.16 $16,339,583
EMC Everest Metals Corp 0% -1% -5% -21% 0.076 $12,485,516
LRD Lordresourceslimited 0% 0% -6% -69% 0.059 $2,190,795
IEC Intra Energy Corp 0% -17% -17% -64% 0.0025 $4,151,954
REC Rechargemetals -9% -16% -28% -48% 0.068 $8,351,398
SLM Solismineralsltd 0% -8% -17% 41% 0.12 $9,408,085
AZS Azure Minerals 0% 0% -1% 1039% 3.645 $1,669,593,653
DYM Dynamicmetalslimited 0% 7% 7% -23% 0.15 $5,400,000
TOR Torque Met -10% -3% -16% 6% 0.185 $31,375,972
SBR Sabre Resources -4% -4% -24% -44% 0.025 $9,730,810
ICL Iceni Gold -11% -11% -19% -62% 0.042 $11,588,369
TMX Terrain Minerals 0% 25% 0% -17% 0.005 $7,158,353
MHC Manhattan Corp Ltd 0% -13% -13% -50% 0.0035 $10,279,429
MHK Metalhawk. -10% -5% -33% -44% 0.09 $9,941,445
NKL Nickelxltd 7% 44% 24% -39% 0.046 $3,776,052
TMB Tambourahmetals -6% -9% -30% -24% 0.08 $7,049,930
ANX Anax Metals Ltd 10% 15% -23% -68% 0.023 $10,153,870
PMT Patriotbatterymetals -8% 0% -34% -54% 0.7375 $403,200,128
BM8 Battery Age Minerals 0% -9% -18% -69% 0.155 $14,222,849
L1M Lightning Minerals -6% -11% -39% -58% 0.085 $3,800,256
ADG Adelong Gold Limited 0% 0% 0% -55% 0.005 $3,498,278
TOR Torque Met -10% -3% -16% 6% 0.185 $31,375,972
AL8 Alderan Resource Ltd 0% -13% -30% -56% 0.0035 $3,874,015
OZM Ozaurum Resources -3% -12% -53% -5% 0.071 $11,588,750
FL1 First Lithium Ltd 4% 2% -48% 50% 0.27 $18,213,433
PLN Pioneer Lithium -9% -6% -20% 0% 0.16 $4,974,375
WYX Western Yilgarn NL 0% 1% -11% -15% 0.089 $4,419,518
RDN Raiden Resources Ltd -4% 0% -38% 339% 0.025 $69,070,693
PFE Panteraminerals 0% 18% 12% -57% 0.058 $7,692,108
GRE Greentechmetals -6% -6% -50% 92% 0.23 $19,789,276
OLY Olympio Metals Ltd -12% -22% -43% -64% 0.06 $4,324,766
SUM Summitminerals 4% -20% -25% -45% 0.074 $3,383,656
JBY James Bay Minerals -5% -13% -44% 0% 0.175 $6,002,325
SCN Scorpion Minerals 0% -11% -24% -71% 0.025 $10,236,405
JNO Juno -6% -11% -23% -18% 0.085 $16,375,073
CC9 Chariot Corporation -8% 13% -29% 0% 0.385 $34,182,270
OBM Ora Banda Mining Ltd 0% 2% -8% 153% 0.22 $375,489,371
RON Roninresourcesltd 0% -10% -24% -13% 0.14 $5,155,501
CXB0 ASRA MINERALS LTD. 0% 0% -25% -63% 0.00003 $4,909,487
ASR Asra Minerals Ltd 20% 0% -14% -57% 0.006 $8,182,479
PFE Panteraminerals 0% 18% 12% -57% 0.058 $7,692,108
TG6 Tgmetalslimited -2% -2% -36% 123% 0.245 $13,521,542
HAW Hawthorn Resources 2% -1% 4% -3% 0.097 $31,826,483
KM1 Kalimetalslimited 2% -10% 0% 0% 0.47 $35,117,364
AEV Avenira Limited 9% 9% -8% -29% 0.012 $23,887,287

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Monday: CHARGED ????

Catalina Resources (ASX:CTN) +25%

Asra Minerals (ASX:ASR) +20%

Golden State Mining (ASX:GSM) +18%

 

Wednesday: RUNNING LOW ????

Kula Gold (ASX:KGD) -33%

Lodestar Minerals (ASX:LSR) -20%

Morella Mining (ASX:1MC) -20%

 

X factoring

Some other lithium-related takes we’ve noticed around the traps today on Elon Musk’s social platform…

Meanwhile, that Lithium Price Bot chart looks like its well and truly flattening out at bottom…

 

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