US Import & Export Prices Signal Massive Deflationary Impulse

US Import and Export price inflation utterly collapsed in April down 4.8% YoY and 5.9% YoY respectively…

Source: Bloomberg

A massive deflationary impulse is evidently heading into US inflation data.

Under the hood it was more mixed on a MoM basis:

• Import prices ex-petroleum fell 0.1% m/m after falling 0.6% in March

• Import prices ex-fuels unchanged m/m after falling 0.5% in March

• Industrial supplies prices rose 1.5% after falling 2.4% in March

• Capital goods prices fell 0.1% m/m after falling 0.1% in March

• Auto prices unchanged m/m after falling 0.2% in March

• Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% m/m after falling 0.3% in March

Some continue to point to the China reopening and resurgence in the credit impulse as being the driver of a resurgence in inflation…

Source: Bloomberg

However, back to reality, China’s most recent credit data was a shitshow and is not reflected in the Bloomberg credit impulse data (which is delayed).

• Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, reached 1.22 trillion yuan ($176 billion) in April, the People’s Bank of China said Thursday. That was lower than the median estimate of 2 trillion yuan in a Bloomberg survey of economists and compares with 933 billion yuan in the same month a year ago

• Financial institutions offered 718.8 billion yuan worth of new loans in the month, far below economists forecasts of 1.4 trillion yuan

In other words, hope for the impact of China’s reopening-sponsoring credit impulse are fading fast…

By the end of this month, markets will be hoping China gets to export some of that sweet, sweet inflation

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 13, 2023