Macro Briefing: 8 November 2022

* Florida’s east coast braces for Tropical Storm Nicole
* Republicans expecting to win back power in Congress after today’s elections
* UN chief outlines stark choice for nations at COP27 climate summit
* China’s Covid controls are still creating headwinds for the economy
* Covid continues to take a toll on US workforce
* Soft landing is still possible for US economy, advises Goldman Sachs
* Consumer confidence in the housing market falls to new low
* US stocks “have always gained a year after midterms” since 1950: LPL Research:

The economy and inflation are the key factors for voters in today’s US mid-term elections, according to polling data. “Republicans have a very strong argument in saying it’s a policy error by the Biden administration that gave us this spike in inflation,” says Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum and chief economist on President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. “It made a huge contribution.”

Upcoming inflation reports are critical for the Federal Reserve’s next round of decisions on monetary policy. “The Fed very much wants to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and I think they would like to at the December meeting,” says Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets. “But if inflation comes in higher than expected, they can’t do that.” Consumer price inflation for October is scheduled for release on Thursday, Nov. 10.

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