Macro Briefing: 18 April 2023

* House Speaker McCarthy outlines plan for vote on debt limit and spending cuts
* Hedging interest-rate risk is rare in the banking industry, study finds
* China’s economic growth picks up speed in the first quarter
* Fund managers most underweight stocks since 2009, survey finds
* AI will impact “every product of every company”, predicts Google CEO
* It’s (still) premature to predict US dollar’s demise as world’s reserve currency
* US homebuilder sentiment edges up in April but remains below neutral 50 mark
* NY Fed Mfg Index rebounds in April, marking growth for first time in 5 months:

The stock market may ignore a US recession for the first time since 1945, says RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina. “Time will tell whether the stock market can look past any recession that occurs in 2023-2024 as the US economy completes its transition into the post-COVID era,” she wrote in a note to clients, which is summarized by Yahoo Finance. “It’s worth keeping in mind that while this would be rare, it wouldn’t be entirely unprecedented.” Her research advises that there have been 13 recessions since 1937, with an average drawdown period for the S&P 500 linked to these events of 381 days. “I actually think that we priced in a recession back at the October lows, but I think people are tired of hearing that,” she tells CNBC.

dollar
markets
reserve
fed
us dollar
reserve currency