Macro Briefing: 10 January 2023

* Biden meets with Mexican president and discusses migration crisis at border
* Nearly half of national security experts see risk of Russia collapse in next decade
* US consumers extend historic increase in credit in November
* Small business sentiment index falls in December, near 10-year low
* McCarthy’s concessions raise fears of potential default, government shutdown
* US banking giants are expected to report shrinking profits
* Consumer inflation expectations fall again in December via NY Fed survey:

One of Wall Street’s highly rated bears says weaker earnings are a headwind for stocks. “Don’t assume the market prices this negative of an earnings outcome until it happens,” advises Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist. “If our earnings forecast proves to be correct, the price declines for equities will be much worse than what most investors are expecting.”

Why has value underperformed growth for so long? Decisions by the central bank, says a chief investment officer. “The vast majority of the outperformance of growth and the underperformance of value was indeed the result of central bank monetary policy,” opines Michael Hunstad at Northern Trust Asset Management. “It was all predicated on low interest rates and a huge amount of liquidity.”

inflation
monetary
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interest rates
fed
central bank
monetary policy