Euro slips on fallout from strong US nonfarm payrolls

• Financial markets in Germany and France are closed for Easter Monday
• Increased odds of Fed hike is weighing on the euro
• Eurozone releases retail sales and investor confidence on Tuesday

US dollar gets a boost from solid nonfarm payrolls

The US dollar is higher against all the majors today, including the euro, courtesy of the strong US employment report on Friday. The star of the show, nonfarm payrolls came in at 236,000 in March. This couldn’t keep up with the prior release, which was upwardly revised to 326,000, but kept close to the market consensus of 340,000.

Friday’s “goldilocks” employment report (strong job gains with limited wage growth) points to a surprisingly resilient job market, despite relentless rate hikes from the Fed. The labour market may be cooling, but the markets are convinced that it is still too hot for the Fed, which needs employment data to weaken so that inflation will fall more quickly. This likely means more rate hikes are needed before the Fed can wind up the current rate-tightening cycle. The odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in May have jumped to 68%, according to the CME Group, versus around 50% prior to Friday’s employment report.

The eurozone gets back into action on Tuesday, with the release of retail sales and investor confidence. The markets are braced for weak readings, which could add to the euro’s losses. Retail sales are expected to decelerate in March to -3.5% y/y, following -2.3% y/y in February. Sentix Investor Confidence, which has been mired in negative territory for a year, is projected to come in at -9.9 in April, after -11.1 a month earlier.

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EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0889. Below, there is support at 1.0804
• There is resistance at 1.0989 and 1.1074

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